AI is taking over white collar jobs. Economists warn ‘a lot in the tank’

JP Morgan Chase And Goldman Sachs They are using it to employ less people. Ford CEO Jim Farley warned that it would “replace half of all white-collar workers.” Salesforceof Marc Benioff Already claimed Doing up to 50% Company workload. Walmart CEO Doug McMillan said The Wall Street Journal that it is “going to change literally every job.”

The “it” on corporate America’s lips is artificial intelligence.

Less than three years into the generative AI boom, executives in every major industry are loudly telling employees and stakeholders that the size and shape of their workforces will change dramatically, if they haven’t already, as the technological revolution continues.

With the launch of OpenAI’s ChatGPT and a new way for customers to use chatbots, it has quickly entered the enterprise, with companies employing customized AI agents to automate tasks in customer support, marketing, coding, content creation and elsewhere.

Recent estimates from Goldman Sachs suggest so 6% to 7% US workers can They lose their jobs Due to the adoption of AI. The Stanford Digital Economy Lab, using ADP employment data, found that Entry-level appointment “AI exposed jobs” have dropped 13% since the proliferation of large language models. The report states that software development, customer service and clerical work are the jobs most vulnerable to AI today.

“We are at the beginning of a multi-decade development that will have a major impact on the labor market,” he said Citadel LevonanChief Economist at the Burning Glass Institute, a research organization that focuses on changes in the economy and workforce.

Automation is of course nothing new. Every era has a printing press, an ATM machine, a self-checkout machine, or an online booking agency that replaces human labor with some form of technology. In the process, new jobs emerge and the economy adapts and develops.

A Report The World Economic Forum estimated earlier this year that the onslaught of AI, robotics and automation could displace 92 million jobs by 2030, while adding 170 million new roles. AI development, research, security and implementation, including robotics, are all growth areas.

Erik Brynjolfsson, director of the Stanford Research Group, said that in addition to new types of roles, physical jobs such as health care and construction workers have so far been protected from AI disruption.

“There will be more turbulence in both directions in the coming months and years,” Brynjolfsson said in an interview. “We need to build our staff.”

High-level data does not yet show much change.

It has been three weeks since the US Govt offSo the Bureau of Labor Statistics has gone dark. But alternative reports from institutions like the Chicago Fed have shown an economy that is moving forward. Employment growth is modest, but the labor market is stable.

The unemployment rate was flat at 4.3% in September, while the rate of layoffs and other separations was 2.1%, according to the Chicago Fed.

recent Study published The Budget Lab at Yale found no “obvious disruption” from ChatGPT. The lab’s co-founder, Martha Gimbel, called the upheaval in AI “minimal” and “reliably focused,” though that could change as technological change works its way through the broader economy.

“The rest of the economy often moves more slowly than Silicon Valley,” she said.

Found in New York Fed a Survey Last month, only 1% of service companies reported having laid off workers due to AI in the past six months. Society for Human Resource Management said data 6% of US jobs have been 50% or more automated, a number that rises to 32% for computer and math-related occupations.

Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said In June he said his company’s corporate workforce will shrink from AI over the next few years and encouraged employees to learn how to use AI tools to eventually “do more work with scrappier teams.”

Published by the New York Times Investigation piece On Tuesday, Amazon’s automation team said it expects to avoid hiring more than 160,000 people in the US by 2027, saving about 30 cents on every item Amazon packs and delivers. The report was based on interviews and internal strategy documents, the Times said.

In response to the report, an Amazon spokesperson told CNBC that the documents provide “an incomplete and misleading picture of our plans.”

“In this instance, the content reflects only one team’s perspective and does not represent our overall hiring strategy — now or going forward — across our various operations business lines,” the spokesperson said in an email.

Palantir CEO Alex Karp told CNBC In August his data analytics company, which has seen its market cap grow 11 times over the past two years, said it aims to grow 10 times and cut its headcount by about 12%. He did not give a time limit to achieve that goal.

This message is reaching the entire technology industry.

Benioff, the CEO of Salesforce, said last month that his software company has cut the number of customer support roles from 9,000 to 5,000 “because I need fewer heads.” Swedish fintech firm Klarna said is Reduced its staff by 40% As it embraces AI. Shopify CEO Tobi Lutke Told the employees In April they are expected to prove why they “can’t do what they can do with AI” before asking for more headcount and resources.

Coding assistants are some of the early winners of the generative AI rush, becoming the first real application type to attract large numbers of paying users. Information reported last week that Cursor’s parent, Anysphere, is in talks to raise funds at a $27 billion valuation, as it takes it. Microsoft’s GitHub and other startups, including Replit, in an increasingly crowded market.

Software development is just the beginning.

in bankingManagers at JPMorgan have been told to avoid hiring people as the firm deploys AI across its businesses, CFO Jeremy Barnum told analysts last week. Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon said that as his bank incorporates AI, “it will change the face of how we organize our people, make decisions and think about productivity and efficiency.”

Then there is the vehicle sector.

When Ford CEO Farley Said to Walter Isaacson “AI will leave a lot of white-collar people behind,” he said in an interview in July, reflecting a growing sentiment across his industry. According to a survey of 500 US car dealers by a marketing solutions firm PhaeronHalf of respondents said they expect AI to sell vehicles autonomously by 2027.

“That means AI can create marketing assets, handle listings, answer buyer questions, negotiate deals, arrange financing and close sales — all without human input,” Phyron said in a report on the results of a survey conducted last month.

The topic will get a lot of attention over the next two weeks as the world’s biggest tech companies release quarterly results and update investors on their AI deployments. Tesla Tech earnings season kicks off on Wednesday, followed by next week Alphabet, MetaMicrosoft, apple And Amazon.

— CNBC’s Anne Palmer contributed to this report.

See: AI will not replace workers but workers do