BBC correspondent on wins and potential losses

US President Donald Trump arrives in Asia for a whirlwind week of diplomacy, including a much-anticipated meeting with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping.

Top of the agenda between the two will be trade – an area where tensions between the world’s two largest economies have once again risen.

Trump arrived in Kuala Lumpur, the capital of Malaysia, as the summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or ASEAN, began on Sunday. He will then visit Japan and finally South Korea, where the White House said he will meet with Xi.

So what wins and losses are Trump and other leaders hoping for?

Our correspondent explains what you should know about next week.

Anthony Zurcher, North America representative

A key focus of Trump’s trip to Asia is sure to be hammering out new trade deals that provide opportunities for American businesses while keeping tariff revenue flowing into the US Treasury.

While there are many players in the global trade dance, the key to Trump’s success or failure is China. And Trump’s planned meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping on the sidelines of Apec – his first since 2019 – could shape the direction of US-China relations for the rest of Trump’s second term.

As the US president has acknowledged, harsh tariffs on Chinese imports are unsustainable. And although he hasn’t said it outright, an escalating economic war with America’s largest trading partner would have devastating consequences – for America, for China, and for the rest of the world.

The sharp drop in major US stock indexes underscores the reality every time China and the US appear to be in turmoil.

When he returns to the US next week, Trump will surely be pleased to be able to seal a deal with South Korea and secure new Japanese investment in US manufacturing.

But his top priority is to get Xi to resume buying American agricultural exports, loosen recent restrictions on foreign access to Chinese rare earth materials, give American companies greater access to the Chinese market and avoid a full-blown trade war.

For Trump, as the saying goes, it’s a whole ballgame.

Laura Bicker, China representative

When Chinese leader Xi Jinping meets Trump in South Korea on Oct. 30, he wants tough negotiations.

That’s why he’s strangling China on rare earths, the minerals without which you can’t make semiconductors, weapons systems, cars or even smartphones. This is America’s weakness, and China is taking advantage of it – just as it is hurting American farmers, and Trump’s rural vote base, by not buying their soybeans.

Xi has also learned from Trump 1.0, and this time, Beijing appears willing to accept the pain of retribution. For one thing, the US, which once accounted for a fifth of China’s exports, is no longer such an important market.

Sheila is still balancing between her economic battle with the US and her struggle with domestic challenges. And Washington knows about Xi’s problems: high youth unemployment, a real estate crisis, rising local government debt and a population unwilling to spend.

Analysts believe China could offer to make a deal if Trump agrees to export advanced AI chips or withdraw more military support for Taiwan.

But getting there won’t be easy. One big difference is that it often looks like Trump is willing to roll the dice and gamble — but Xi is playing longer.

So the question may be: Can Trump wait?

Jonathan Head, South East Asia Representative

The US president appears to be interested in only one thing during his visit to Malaysia: playing a central role in a ceremony specially organized for him, in which Thailand and Cambodia will sign some kind of peace agreement.

The differences between the two countries over their border are still unresolved, but under pressure to come up with something, they have made progress in agreeing to demilitarize the border.

Neither can afford to disappoint President Trump. Back in July, when they were still bombing and firing at each other, his threat to end tariff talks forced them into an immediate ceasefire.

Other ASEAN member states will expect Trump’s mere presence to normalize relations with the US.

They had a tumultuous year in which their export-dependent economies were badly shaken by their tariff wars. Exports from the region to the US have doubled since Trump’s last visit to the ASEAN summit in 2017.

Once Trump is gone, other leaders can settle down to business as usual—the quiet, incremental diplomacy that makes progressive progress toward integration among them.

Also on the agenda is a conflict that doesn’t have Trump’s attention — the civil war in Myanmar, which has haunted every ASEAN gathering since a brutal coup in 2021.

Suranjana Tiwari, Asia Business Representative

Asia’s manufacturing powerhouses, which make most of the world’s output, are seeking relief from Trump’s tariffs.

Some have reached agreements, others are still mired in talks – but none have signed a deal.

So ink on paper, or at least supportive discussion, would be welcome.

Take China. The meeting between Trump and Xi signals progress, but the two leaders have much to unpack, from levies and export controls to all sources: the rivalry between the world’s two largest economies as they compete for the lead in AI and advanced technology.

Any easing of these tensions will bring relief to other countries in the region stuck in the middle. South East Asia may be the most entrenched — it’s deeply woven into the US supply chain in electronics, for example, yet heavily dependent on Chinese demand.

Exports to the US have doubled over the past decade, but 10% to 40% will hit producers in Vietnam, Indonesia, Singapore and Thailand.

It could also hurt US chipmakers such as Micron Technology, which operates a plant in Malaysia. The country exported about $10bn worth of semiconductors to the US last year, roughly a fifth of total US chip imports.

Rich economies like Japan and South Korea face a different dilemma.

Although the US has close allies, they are in for an unpredictable time – and want to lock in tariff terms and investment. Automakers in both countries, which see the US as a key market, are already struggling to navigate the chaos.

Shaima Khalil, Representative of Japan

Trump described Japan’s new Prime Minister Sane Takaichi as a woman of great “strength and wisdom.”

This week, her ability to build a stable, working relationship with him will be an early test of her leadership — and of Japan’s place in a changing world order.

In her first speech to parliament, she pledged to increase Japan’s defense budget and signaled her intention to shift more of the security burden to Washington.

Trump has talked about it before and is expected to press Tokyo to contribute more to US troop deployments – Japan has the largest number of US troops overseas, at around 53,000 personnel.

Both sides want to finalize the tariff agreement negotiated by her predecessor.

Particularly beneficial to Japan’s auto giants – Toyota, Honda and Nissan – it cuts US import tariffs on Japanese cars from 27.5% to 15%, potentially making them more competitive against Chinese rivals.

Takaichi continues, retaining Ryosei Akazawa as chief tariff negotiator.

In return, Japan has pledged to invest $550 billion in the US to strengthen supply chains in pharmaceuticals and semiconductors.

Trump also said Japan would increase purchases of US agricultural products, including rice, a move welcomed in Washington but unsettling for Japanese farmers.

Takaichi’s relationship with the late former prime minister Shinzo Abe, who shared a close relationship with Trump, could also work in her favor.

Abe famously used rounds of golf at Mar-a-Lago to win Trump’s trust – a form of personal diplomacy that Takaichi could emulate.

By Jake Kwon, Seoul Correspondent

Trump’s tariffs are a sticking point for South Korean President Lee Jae-myung.

But the thunder was briefly stolen by rampant speculation that Trump might travel to the border to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.

In August, Lee devoted much of his time in the Oval Office to flattering Trump as a “peacemaker.” Trump responded enthusiastically to the prospect of a sit-down with Kim, which he has not seen since 2019. Kim said last month that he still remembers Trump “fondly.”

Analysts believe Kim will legitimize his nuclear weapons program at a second summit with the US president. There are no signs that the work of the meeting is underway.

Either way, Lee has a trade deal up for negotiation. Talks to cut US tariffs on South Korean exports from 25% to 15% have stalled, despite several visits by Seoul officials to Washington. A key issue is Trump’s insistence that Seoul invest $350bn in the US upfront – roughly a fifth of South Korea’s economy, an investment so large it could trigger a financial crisis, Seoul fears.

But in recent days, Korean officials have expressed hope, talking about tangible progress. And there is hope for a signed agreement between Trump and Lee by the end of Wednesday’s summit.