Everyone is looking forward to Friday’s big inflation report. Here’s what to expect
A shopper looks at produce at a grocery store in West Milton, Ohio, U.S., on Tuesday, Oct. 21, 2025.
Kyle Grillot | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Friday’s release of the September consumer price index report is the only game in town this month that is hungry for data, raising the possibility that it will be a market-moving event.
Thanks to the lack of official financial reports, when the real numbers are expected to tell us where they’ve been in recent months Government shutdownThat means even a small deviation can have a big impact.
“We haven’t had any government data recently, I think all the market’s attention and all the market’s attention will be focused on this one report,” said Troy Ludtka, senior US economist at SMBC Nikko Securities. “This is going to be the report to end all reports.”
As far as the Wall Street consensus goes, however, the CPI release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics appears to be more of the same.
Economists polled by Dow Jones expected the monthly all-in-one reading to rise 0.4%, Same as a month agoThe 12-month inflation rate was 3.1%, or 0.2 percentage points higher than August’s level. Excluding food and energy, core CPI will show a 0.3% monthly increase and a 3.1% annual level, both the same as in August. The annual rate will be highest from January.
What the Street is looking for is any deviation in readings that indicate inflation is hotter or cooler than expected. It will also focus on what results show Charges by President Donald Trump are on prices.
The report, due out on October 15, will be the last major economic reading before the Fed’s policy meeting, which ends on Wednesday. The BLS recalled workers because it uses the CPI as a benchmark for Social Security cost-of-living adjustments.
Lack of clarity
Goldman Sachs economists expect little change in vehicle prices, an increase in car insurance and a drop in airfares. On the issue of tariffs, the firm said in a note that “upward pressure” is expected on categories such as communication, household goods and entertainment, but would add only 0.07 percentage point to the core inflation figure.
However, the data in general is a black box with much of the government locked out, which raises some questions about the reliability of the CPI.
“We don’t have full clarity because of the lack of key data points that the market depends on because of the government shutdown,” said Vishal Khanduja, head of broad markets fixed income at Morgan Stanley Investment Management. “That adds a bit more uncertainty.”
Indeed, investors have been on tenterhooks lately, pushing Major stock market averages Despite constant fluctuations in daily moves around the record area.
Geopolitical uncertainty is a source of concern, with an ever-changing tariff landscape raising concerns that higher prices could slow economic growth. Despite the CPI report Concerns about how clean the data will be Shutdown-related disruptions should help answer some of those questions.
That applies to both markets and the Federal Reserve, which has a policy meeting next week in which officials are expected to approve a second quarter percentage point interest rate cut.
“In terms of market impact, a change in the market’s view on additional interest rate cuts would be a meaningful surprise,” said Julien Lafargue, chief market strategist at Barclays Private Bank.
Outside of repeated trade war spikes, markets have been buoyed by another strong earnings season. Before the lockdown, economic data also showed a surprisingly resilient economy Tracking Gross Domestic Product Closer to 4% for the third quarter, according to the Atlanta Fed.
While some results are needed to shake up that narrative, a surprise from the CPI could be just the ticket.
“I would expect volatility if the number comes in higher than expected,” said Stephanie Link, chief investment strategist at Hightower Advisors. “I would see this as a buying opportunity as the economy is strong, the Fed is starting a cutting cycle, EPS is growing in the double digits and the fourth quarter is seasonally the strongest quarter of the year.”
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