Gubernatorial contests on the horizon could change government shutdown dynamics

Next week’s gubernatorial race may tell us more than where the shutdown fight lies off It will show itself about those elections.

While the gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia will appear largely untouched by government funding lapses, their results could serve as a barometer for public perceptions of who is at fault for the standoff in Washington, DC.

But only if the results stand out.

Bill Wichterman, former Special Assistant to the President George W. Bush, Both parties seem stuck in their respective positions and there are no signs of budging any time soon. Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, R-Tenn. Having watched past shutdown struggles closely as a policy adviser and chief of staff for other offices, he believes it will take dramatic election results to change lawmakers’ resolve.

Virginia Lt. Gov. Winsom Earle-Sears, a Republican, left, is running against Democrat Abigail Spanberger, right, in the state’s 2025 race for governor. (Washington Post via Kristen Zeiss/Getty Images; Kevin Dietz/Getty Images)

“Typically it’s a 5-point win, and let’s say it’s a 15-point win,” Wichterman said of the likelihood of a Democrat winning both races. “Yes, it will get people’s attention. But if it’s like a normal 5-point win, which is normal, I don’t think Republicans will look at that as worrisome.”

Both Democratic candidates, Abigail Spanberger in Virginia and Mickey Sherrill in New Jersey, have just over a week to go before Election Day. Republicans Winsom Earle-Sears, a Virginia candidate, and Jack Ciatarelli of New Jersey are both less than 10 points behind.

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After the presidential election, Wichterman said it wasn’t particularly surprising that the minority party did well; That fits the historical trend of how the public reacts to new presidents of either party.

“Democratic wins in those two states? Does that scare Republicans? No, they’re both blue states,” Wichterman said.

But if the Republican gubernatorial candidate can pull off an upset, Wichterman believes things change.

“I think the Democrats will look at that and say, ‘My gosh, we’re not doing a good job. What’s going on here?’ It will be disrupted.”

Republican Jack Ciattarelli, left, looks on as Democrat Mickey Sherrill speaks in the New Jersey governor’s race, October 8, 2025, in New Brunswick, NJ (Heather Khalifa/AP)

While the Republican-led short-term spending bill could have kept the government open until Nov. 21, government funding fell short on Oct. 1. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, DN.Y. and Chuck Schumer, DN.Y. The Democrats, led by Mr. Emergency Subsidy Premiums for Obamacare

Republicans have rejected those demands, maintaining that the subsidies have nothing to do with the question of government funding.

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Despite the lack of funds, the state level elections will not be affected to a large extent.

At a practical level, the federal government largely leaves the states to conduct their own elections and plays a minimal role in their administration. In many cases, the federal government provides funding to states to update, modernize, or enhance security for elections.

In one of the most notable examples, the Election Assistance Commission (EAC) does not directly assist in conducting state-level elections. Instead, it helps fund security and infrastructure-related costs through grants established by the Help America Vote Act (HAVA).

New Jersey and Virginia each already received $272,700 in 2025 through a HAVA grant. Congress approved the funding in appropriations legislation earlier this year.

Wichterman believes another way the election could tip the scales for a shutdown is the reaction of the White House. Even if Congress MLAs are retained after the election, the President By Donald Trump Direction on government funding can change the position of lawmakers.

So far, Trump has not wavered and his focus is elsewhere. On Monday, Trump, along with other officials, traveled to Japan to meet the country’s emperor.

Trump’s shadow looms large over races that heat up a month before Election Day

President Donald Trump speaks to reporters aboard Air Force One en route from Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia to Tokyo, Japan on October 27, 2025. (Mark Schieffelbein/AP)

“I think the Democrats are waiting for Trump to crack (on the shutdown),” Wicherman said. “And he’s not. I’ve been in a lot of shutdown fights starting in ’95. I know what it feels like when you’re part of a party that carries water. The Republican Party still doesn’t feel that way.”

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Democrats echoed their sentiments Supplementary funds reduced Bill for payment of essential government employees. For them, the gridlock on Capitol Hill will probably last until Trump is persuaded to personally join the negotiations.

Sen. Chris Van Hollen, D-M., believes the president’s only Republican vote matters.

“He says, ‘Jump,’ they say, ‘How high?’ And so, that’s what needs to come to the table,” Van Hollen said when asked about shutdown-ending negotiations.