Like Miley, Trump also can’t stop the Argentine peso from falling – “Will the US get its payments back?”

Friday, Currency decline 0.4% against the US dollar, which is now trading at around 1,492 pesos. The exchange rate has already reached a record low and is below its level before the Trump administration’s announcement Currency swap worth $20 billion deal.

While news of this lifeline briefly sparked a sharp rally earlier this month, the peso has since given up those gains and is down more than 40% against the dollar so far this year.

This comes despite efforts by Argentine President Javier Miley to secure an IMF bailout and defend the peso by draining the country’s foreign exchange reserves.

The financial turmoil comes as voters have become disillusioned with Miley’s libertarian economic platform, which has drawn praise from Trump and other Republicans. While he rose Great progress In curbing deficits and inflation, growth has slowed, and Argentina’s so-called creeping peg to the dollar has become unsustainable.

The recent regional elections handed Miley a major defeat, which increased the possibility of him devaluing the peso. Congressional elections scheduled for Sunday are expected to go against his party, adding pressure on the currency.

Trump has defended his bailout amid growing opposition from supporters who say it does not align with his “Make America Great Again” agenda.

“They don’t have money, they don’t have anything, they’re fighting hard to survive,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One last weekend.

Treasury Secretary Scott Becent has defended aid to Argentina as necessary to prevent a “failed state” and described the currency swap line as “a bridge to a better economic future for Argentina, not a bailout.”

But US intervention has so far failed to stop the peso’s slide to new record levels, even as market participants see signs that the Treasury Hundreds of millions of dollars sold To support her.

Wall Street’s view is bleak

Wall Street took a dim view of Argentina’s prospects and the Trump administration’s ability to keep Miley’s economic reforms on track.

Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, said in a… Wednesday’s blog post That currency intervention has failed and a 15% to 30% depreciation of the peso is highly likely if voters reject Miley again.

He noted that the United States is also trying to arrange additional loans for Argentina from American banks, namely They are reportedly asking for guarantees or guarantees That they will become whole again.

“Given that Miley’s government has already exhausted $20 billion in aid from the International Monetary Fund, it is necessary to ask the question: Will the United States get its money back?” Brusuelas said.

He said Buenos Aires would likely devalue the peso and possibly default on its debt, noting that the country is a “defaulter” and has tried to renegotiate its foreign debt nine times since 1816.

Indeed, Argentina has dollar-denominated debt that will mature soon, requiring at least $18 billion to be repaid next year.

In a note on Tuesday, Mauricio Monge, chief Latin America economist at Oxford Economics, said the US currency’s lifeline would be more effective if it was front-loaded and instantaneous.

But it’s not clear that’s the case, especially since Trump has said more aid would depend on the increasingly unlikely scenario of a victory by Miley’s allies on Sunday.

He added: “If history has taught us anything about Argentina, it is that previous bailouts, when political support declines, have proven ineffective.” “As Miley approval ratings decline and political support fades, the likelihood of capital controls being re-imposed and the currency devaluing increases, prompting depositors to shift to dollars.”