Odds, picks and best bet for a major SEC clash

There’s a lot to take away from it when No. 8 Ole Miss visits No. 13 Oklahoma for the first time in history on Saturday.

This is what critics have described as a battle between fire and ice; There has to be something between Ole Miss’s top-five offense and Oklahoma’s No. 1-ranked defense.

Oklahoma got to 6-1 through structure and discipline. It is the best in the country in terms of EPA and success rate by blooming in depth and rotation.

Texas A&M vs. LSU odds, prediction

Oklahoma’s steam pushed the point line in their favor from the opening at 4.5, indicating confidence that Brent Venables’ frame is the dominant factor in dictating the tempo.

The Sooners lead the SEC with 28 sacks and rank in the top 20 overall in total pressures thanks to the relentless R. Mason Thomas, who has recorded the third-most QB takedowns in the conference. Overall, the Sooners have 10 players who have recorded at least one sack.

The red area is where Venables’ structure is most effective; Opponents scored touchdowns on just 36 percent of trips inside the twenty. This has translated to four of the Sooners’ seven opponents scoring seven or fewer points.

But this powder keg Rebel offense represents a test Oklahoma has yet to face — it has yet to deal with an opponent who ranks among the top 35 in offensive efficiency. The balanced and unpredictable Lane Kiffin scheme averages nearly 500 yards and produces explosive plays in the top 15 in the country.

Trinidad Chambliss’ dual-threat abilities are strong enough to stretch Oklahoma’s discipline. He leads the SEC with 9.6 yards per attempt. There’s a long list of players behind him, namely running back Kewan Lacy and a three-headed monster, that I could delve into to express just how aggressive the Rebels are.

The pace of the Rebels can be too fast for their advantage. Kiffin’s offense scores quickly and thrives when the game becomes a 40-yard dash, but this approach exposes the defense when drives stall. We saw this last week when Ole Miss led 35-26 in the fourth quarter before the collapse that became a 43-35 loss.

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Ole Miss wasn’t able to make a single stop, and the Bulldogs scored on every possession until the clock ran down the clock.

The Rebel defense has given up 4.5 yards per play or more in all but one game.

Oklahoma quarterback John Matter offers a game-management role by design. However, the Sooners lead all opponents by nearly three yards per drive at starting field position.

The Sooners win because the defense controls the tempo and the offense takes advantage of short fields.

I don’t want to deal with the total in this game since it could drop sharply in either direction of velocity.

All it takes is a Venables defense that contains Chambliss inside the pocket and forces the Rebels into long drives and the Sooners will squeeze the life out of this game.

The play: Oklahoma -5.5 (-10) BetMGM)

Why trust the New York Post to bet

Sean Tripidi breaks down the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. It focuses primarily on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.