One senior analyst says China is playing a “major role” in gold’s all-time high, and he has the data to prove it

“China plays a major role in the ongoing rise in gold prices due to central bank buying, arbitrage trading, and increased speculation and safe haven demand among Chinese households,” Slok wrote in his column on Tuesday. daily spark, Including four charts Which proves his point. He included a fifth report showing that “higher business uncertainty in the US is also pushing up gold prices.”

Slouk’s comments came with the kind of strange timing familiar to market watchers: on the morning of a day of heavy selling against a strong dollar that had been marked The largest decline in gold in 12 yearsDown as much as 6.3% after the previous day’s peak of $4,381.52 an ounce. “It is during corrections that the true strength of the market is revealed, and this time it should be no different,” Ole Hansen, commodities strategist at Saxo Bank AS, told Bloomberg of the sudden calm. Gold was down 4.78% to $4,151.20 an ounce at 12:10 PM EST, still up more than 55% year to date.

Gold’s 50% jump in 2025 was a seminal moment: it crossed the $4,000-per-ounce threshold after President Donald Trump imposed a 100% tariff on China, severely disrupting global trade and eroding confidence in the US currency. As the value of the dollar declines and US stocks decline, gold shines brighter as a safe-haven asset. Veteran analyst Ed Yardeni She forecasts a price of $5,000 for 2026 and up to $10,000 by 2028 if current trends continue — citing a “discount trade” that favors gold and bitcoin when fiat currencies are at risk of inflation and systemic instability.

Other reports add evidence to Slok’s findings. The people Bank of China He has been a relentless buyer of gold, recording his 11th straight monthly purchase in September, per Commodity news site Kitco. Officially reported reserves have arrived in China 2,264 tons by mid-2025But industry consensus suggests that real holdings may be larger due to underreporting – a tactic often used to gain strategic advantage. This central bank buying is not just a statistical curiosity; It sets a price floor that signals institutional and private investors to follow suit, reinforcing demand cycles.​

Aside from official reserves, Chinese consumers are fueling this rally. gold Withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange rose in Septemberreaching a monthly total of 118 tons, with a monthly increase on a monthly basis and on an annual basis. Chinese gold ETFs saw net inflows in September, and gold futures trading volumes rose significantly – indicating a strong mix of household safe-haven demand and speculative trading within China itself. This increased participation by retail investors amplifies China’s influence on global gold prices.​

Slok cites the China Financial Futures Exchange in its report that China’s gold inventory level has risen throughout 2025, and Bloomberg data shows that household demand for gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) is also on the rise. This suggests that beyond everything the People’s Bank of China is doing, Chinese households are driving significant activity, as the trade war between China and the US continues. Presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump are scheduled to meet soon, where Xi will impose new restrictions on access to rare earths, and Trump threatens new 100% tariffs in response – before appearing to back down.

Global ripple effects: Uncertainty in the United States and beyond

Although Chinese purchases are the dominant driver, growing business uncertainty in the US has added fuel to the fire. As economic volatility and geopolitical risks increased – exacerbated by US-China trade tensions, dollar depreciation, and interest rate cuts – US investors joined the trend towards gold, sending prices higher. Leading institutions, including Goldman Sachs, raised their gold forecasts, forecasting prices of up to $4,900 per ounce for December 2026, well above current record levels. When analysts combine these factors with behavioral data, the result is a compelling argument: gold movements in China are the focus, but the impact is global.

Behavior analysis He echoes notes From Lena Thomas, a commodity strategist at Goldman Sachs, and Canadian businessman and legendary gold investor Pierre Lassonde, who noted earlier this month that gold’s rally today is based on fundamentals, not hype. Thomas stressed that economic instability – especially uncertainty caused by tariffs and the depreciation of the dollar – has led to gold rising by 65% ​​in 2025, reaching a staggering level of $4,242 per ounce. As the United States and China enter into a trade confrontation, both central banks and private investors are diversifying their investment sources away from the dollar, increasing demand for gold.

Thomas and Lassonde draw clear parallels with the 1970s, when Nixon’s abrupt termination of the gold standard and subsequent financial turmoil caused gold prices to accelerate by more than 2,300% over the course of the decade. Lassonde describes the current moment as “the 1976 equivalent now of that four-year bull market,” suggesting that the rally could continue for years.

Even traditional gold skeptics have joined the rush. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, who has long been unconvinced of gold’s merits, admitted In conversation with luck Editor-in-Chief Alison Shontell That “this is one of the few times in my life where it’s semi-rational to have some in your portfolio” – a notable change driven by the kind of global uncertainty and market collapse also evident in the behavior analysis.

Citadel CEO Ken Griffin, the billionaire hedge fund founder, sounds similar to Dimon’s observation, but he’s not happy about it. “I now look at gold as a safe-haven asset the way the dollar used to be viewed. That’s what really worries me,” Griffin said. He said Bloomberg earlier this month.

Another hedge fund billionaire, Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio, said earlier this month that investors… They should put 15% of their portfolio in goldDescribing it as “an absolutely excellent variety”. China seems to agree.

(This report has been updated to include Tuesday’s trading data on gold’s biggest decline in more than a decade