Study says Trump’s immigration policies will reduce labor force estimates by 15.7 million and slow GDP growth by a third over the next decade.

The Trump administration’s policies aimed at legal and illegal immigration would reduce the projected number of workers by 6.8 million by 2028 and 15.7 million by 2035, the National Foundation for American Policy said. He studies Released Friday found. People entering the labor market will not fully offset job losses, leading to a net reduction in the labor force of 4 million workers by 2028 and 11 million in 2035.

“As the U.S.-born population ages and grows at a slower rate, immigrants have become an essential part of the growth of the American workforce,” said the think tank, which focuses on trade and immigration.

In fact, immigrant workers were responsible for 84.7% of America’s labor force growth between 2019 and 2024, according to the report.

The study takes into account several of Trump’s far-reaching immigration policies for those eligible to work in the country, including reducing and suspending employment. Acceptance of refugeesA travel ban In 19 countries, and ending Temporary protection statusand prevent international students from working in elective practical training and STEM OPT thereafter Complete their coursework. The analysis does not take into account the new policy that requires US companies to pay $100,000 One-time fee For new H-1B visas.

Labor reduction

Trump’s campaign against immigration is already starting to impact the workforce.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ household survey shows a decline of 1.1 million foreign-born workers from the start of the Trump administration in January through August, according to the report.

The study said that of the 6.8 million workers expected to be reduced in the US workforce by 2028, 2.8 million will be due to changes in legal immigration policies, while 4 million will be the result of policies related to illegal immigration.

At the same time, U.S.-born workers do not appear to be entering the labor market en masse as foreign-born workers exit, the report said. Instead, the labor force participation rate for U.S.-born workers ages 16 and older fell to 61.6% in August from 61.7% a year ago, according to the report.

Mark Regetts, a labor economist and senior fellow at NFAP, said in the report that it is “a mistake” to assume that lower immigration helps American workers when job growth slows.

“Immigrants create demand for goods and services produced by U.S.-born workers and work alongside them in ways that increase productivity for both groups,” Regritz said. “Although this is just one factor, we should not be surprised that opportunities for U.S.-born workers are declining at the same time that the number of immigrants in the labor force may decline by about 1 million people.”

But the White House says there is a large pool of US-born workers.

“More than one in ten young adults In America they are not working, nor are they in higher education, nor are they pursuing any kind of vocational training. White House spokeswoman Abigail Jackson said luck in a statement, referring to a July 2024 CNBC article. “There is no shortage of American minds and hands to grow our workforce, and President Trump’s agenda to create jobs for American workers represents this administration’s commitment to tapping into that untapped potential while carrying out our mandate to enforce our immigration laws.”

Economic repercussions

Previous reports have warned that Trump’s immigration policies also threaten negative economic consequences.

In September, the Congressional Budget Office Expected 290,000 immigrants will be deported from the country between 2026 and 2029, which could lead to labor shortages and increased demand. Economic inflation.

According to the NFAP study, Trump’s immigration policies will reduce the expected average annual economic growth rate to 1.3% from 1.8% between fiscal year 2025 to fiscal year 2035.

There are also repercussions for agriculture Industry and food production. The Department of Labor recognized earlier this month in Filing in the Federal Register Trump’s campaign against immigration risks “labor shortages exacerbated by the almost complete cessation of the flow of illegal aliens.”

And this is not the only sector feeling the talent squeeze.

Workers applying for new H-1B visas expected to be paid a one-time $100,000 fee Disrupting companies Included Amazon, Microsoft and deadbecause they recruit workers greatly under this situation.

And the policies are Expected It will have far-reaching implications for most areas of business, including the potential loss of hundreds of thousands of migrant workers in sectors such as information, education and health services.

Additionally, individuals affected by Trump’s travel ban on 19 different countries represent a significant portion of the economy, and the American Immigration Council, a nonprofit research organization and advocacy group, estimated.

Households led by new arrivals from the countries earned $3.2 billion in household income, paid $715.6 million in federal, state and local taxes, and possessed $2.5 billion in purchasing power, according to the AIC.

“These citizens have made important contributions to U.S. industries that face labor shortages and rely on foreign-born workers,” such as hospitality, construction, retail, and manufacturing, the report said.

But the White House said Trump would continue to “grow our economy, create opportunities for American workers, and ensure all sectors have the workforce they need to succeed.”

Nan Wu, Director of Research at AIC, said: luck The latest NFAP study may not fully capture the broader impact of the Trump administration’s immigration enforcement efforts.

“Given the unprecedented scale of these measures, it is difficult to quantify the chilling impact they may have on immigrants who may choose to move to or remain in the United States,” Wu said. “For example, international students — an important source of highly skilled talent — may increasingly choose to pursue education or employment opportunities in other countries. This shift could significantly disrupt the pipeline for American talent, particularly in sectors that rely heavily on STEM expertise and innovation.”