Tanzania’s election looks more like a coronation than a contest for President Samia Suluhu Hassan

No heavy weights With opposition candidates cleared to compete in Wednesday’s election, many Tanzanians see the vote as less of a contest and more of a coronation for President Samia Suluhu Hassan, as she faces her first presidential run.

The 65-year-old will become the East African country’s first female head of state following the death of incumbent President John Magufuli in 2021. On the one hand he was praised for his no-nonsense drive to curb corruption but on the other hand he was criticized for blocking the authoritarianism over the differences and controversial attitude towards the Covid pandemic.

President Samia, who was vice president, seemed like a breath of fresh air – and with her warm and friendly style, she introduced reforms that marked a radical departure from the policies of her predecessor.

Her Four Rs policy – ​​”Reconciliation, Resilience, Reform and Reconstruction” – reopened Tanzania to foreign investors, restored donor relations and mollified the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank.

“She made a difference, restoring lost ties between Tanzania and international institutions like the World Bank,” political analyst Mohammed Issa told the BBC.

But political space has shrunk dramatically over the past two years – and the targeting of government critics and opposition voices is said to be more ruthless than ever under Magufuli, with kidnappings and assassinations now regularly reported.

“Samia came in with a conciliatory tone, but now she has become bolder and takes tough decisions that many don’t expect from her,” Mr Issa said.

“Now she is widely blamed for kidnappings, killings, opposition repression and other security issues.”

This is reflected in reports by Freedom House, a US-based democracy and human rights advocacy group, which ranked Tanzania as “partly free” in 2020 and “not free” last year.

The government has not commented on the allegations.

Samia’s CCM has won every election since the resumption of multi-party democracy in 1992, but campaigns are usually punctuated by heated debates between rival parties.

The Electoral Commission has allowed 17 presidential candidates to stand this time, while the main opposition party, Chadema, whose leader, Tundu Lissu, is currently barred. In the case of treason.

Before his arrest in April he was calling for electoral reforms – and the party is now calling on his supporters to boycott the vote.

His deputy, John Heche, An arrest was also made last week – and told the BBC before his arrest that President Samia’s so-called reforms were hollow: “Yes, the rallies were allowed again, but today Chadema cannot fulfill his mandate because the promises were false.”

Meanwhile, presidential hopeful Luhana Mpina, the second largest opposition party, ACT Wazalendo, has also been disqualified twice.

The High Court had succeeded in restoring his candidacy after barring him on a procedural issue – but when the Attorney General appealed last month, the Election Commission decided to uphold the disqualification.

This leaves smaller opposition parties like Choumma and CUF in the race, but in reality there is no chance of stopping Samia from winning her first personal mandate.

“Ruling party control, exclusion of opposition parties and institutional bias undermine the credibility of elections. Limited civic space and low voter participation further weaken inclusiveness,” said political analyst Nicodemus Minde in a recent report by the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) think tank.

This has disappointed some voters like Dar es Salaam resident Godfrey Lusana.

“We don’t have an election without a strong opposition party. The electoral system is not independent. We already know who is going to win. I can’t waste time voting,” he told the BBC. “If the Election Commission was truly independent, I would have voted.”

This is in stark contrast to Tanzania’s bombastic campaign on the semi-autonomous archipelago of Zanzibar – where President Samia hails from.

Islanders elect their own regional president and CCM’s incumbent Hussein Mwini is seeking another term, but faces stiff competition from ACT-Wazalendo’s Othman Masood – who is serving as his deputy in the unity administration.

On the campaign trail on the mainland, President Samia has capitalized on early praise for her maternal approach – seeking to govern through dialogue rather than decree.

This has earned her the nickname “Mama Samia” – and at her rallies she has been promising massive development through better infrastructure, health and education.

Many women, especially in rural areas, see her as a stabilizing force.

“She brings dignity, we young women look up to her. We feel her presence as president and it gives us confidence that we can be reliable for our communities now and in the future,” Rani Castoric from the northern city of Tanga told the BBC.

But some urban women, like Selina Ponciana, who will be voting for the first time in Dar es Salaam, are more ambivalent: “Leadership is not just about tone.

“I believe the president wants to do a job on unemployment first. He is supporting some but many still need help,” she said.

Another young woman from Morogoro, near Dar es Salaam, said she supported the president but refused to give her name to the BBC in case she faced backlash from her contemporaries.

“Samia made us believe that women can lead. I would like to say more, but many young people don’t speak positively about her,” she said.

Most of Tanzania’s 37.7 million registered voters are young people – and there is anger among some at the president’s silence on issues such as the shocking kidnappings.

And while some credit President Samia with stabilizing the economy, increasing reports of corruption in some quarters are downright nauseating for Magufuli.

Of late, her hardline approach can come across many issues.

In a traditionally male-dominated society, she has faced problems asserting her rights. At recent rallies she has been reminding voters who’s boss: “Don’t forget I’m the chief of the defense forces.”

She may feel slighted by colleagues. Within the CCM, there was some opposition to the fact that the party’s presidential candidate was not challenged.

A senior member of the party who criticized her automatic nomination – Humphrey Polpole – It has since been abducted under mysterious circumstances.

There is also a suggestion that she has actually become a pawn of a powerful network of business tycoons and other influential CCM supporters, colloquially known as Muhkho, Mr Minde said in his ISS report.

“The internal (CCM) party’s democracy has been undermined by the planned move to make President Samia the sole candidate. This has deepened divisions in the party, while a facade of unity is being presented to the public,” he said.

Magufuli is believed to have refused to take orders from Matandao, preferring to stick to his own anti-corruption agenda.

Mr Minde warns that all this has created a sense of fear in the East African nation. Due to media self-censorship and the decline of political discourse, public debate has retreated to private conversations and social media.

Analysts warn that such disengagement, especially among young people, could further hollow out Tanzania’s democracy – and spell trouble down the road for President Samia if mass turnouts and protests erupt.

For Tito Magotti, a lawyer and youth political activist, the demands are simple.

“We want a free Tanzania where anyone has the freedom to speak,” he told the BBC.

“Freedom of movement and freedom to do whatever they want.”