Trump has revived speculation about a meeting with Kim Jong Un, but North Korea now holds the cards

Now, as Trump is scheduled to take his first action Trip to Asia Since his return to office, speculation has spread that he may seek to meet Kim again during his stop in South Korea. If this is achieved, it will mark the first summit between the two countries since their last meeting in the Korean border village Panmunjom in June 2019, and fourth overall.

Many experts say the prospects for another impromptu meeting are not bright this time, but they expect Trump and Kim to eventually meet for talks again in the coming months. Others are skeptical, saying a quick resumption of diplomacy remains unlikely given how much has changed since 2019 — both the size of North Korea’s nuclear program and its foreign policy influence.

Talks about new diplomacy

Trump has repeatedly expressed his desire to restore diplomacy with Kim, boasting of his relationship with the North Korean leader and calling him a “smart guy.” Ending his silence on Trump’s outreach, Kim said last month that he stood firm “Good personal memories” Trump suggested returning to the talks if the United States abandons its “delusional obsession with denuclearizing” North Korea.

Both Washington and Pyongyang did not hint at holding any high-level meeting before the scheduled period from October 31 to November. 1 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Meeting in South Korea. But South Korean Unification Minister Chung Dong-yong told lawmakers in mid-October that it was possible for Trump and Kim to meet at Panmunjom in the DMZ again when the US president comes to South Korea after visiting Malaysia and Japan.

“We should see an increase in the odds of them meeting,” said Pan Kil-ju, an assistant professor at the Korea National Diplomatic Academy in Seoul. He pointed to the recent suspension of civilian flights to the southern side of Panmunjom and Kim’s comments about a possible return to talks.

If the meeting does not take place, Ban said Kim will likely decide whether to resume diplomacy with Trump when he holds a major ruling party congress expected in January.

No notable logistical preparations have been reported to suggest an imminent meeting between Kim and Trump, but observers suggest the 2019 meeting was arranged just one day after Trump issued an unorthodox invitation to the meeting via Twitter.

Kim’s greater influence

Since his previous diplomacy with Trump I collapsed Because of disagreements over US-led sanctions on North Korea, Kim has accelerated the expansion of an arsenal of nuclear-capable missiles designed to strike the United States and its allies. He also strengthened his diplomatic footprint through Compatibility with Russia Because of its war in Ukraine and closer relations with China.

In retrospect, Kim’s sense of urgency for talks with the United States may be much weaker now than it was six years ago, although some experts say Kim will need to prepare for the end of the Russia-Ukraine war.

“Given the current situation, it seems difficult to imagine Kim Jong Un coming for talks,” said Kim Tae-hyung, a professor at Soongsil University in Seoul.

With an expanded nuclear arsenal, and stronger diplomatic support from Russia, China, and the United States – Weakening the enforcement of sanctionsKim has greater influence and clearly wants the United States to recognize North Korea as a nuclear power, the status required to call for the lifting of UN sanctions. But this would run counter to the long-standing position of the United States and its allies that sanctions will remain in place unless North Korea fully abandons its nuclear commitments. Nuclear programme.

“If a meeting with Kim Jong Un occurs, Trump will brag about him and boast that he is the one who can solve the issues of the Korean Peninsula as well, and therefore he has something to gain… But will the United States have something substantive to offer Kim Jong Un in return?” said Chung Jin-young, former dean of the Graduate School of Pacific International Studies at Kyung Hee University in South Korea.

Koh Yu-hwan, former head of South Korea’s National Unification Institute, said any meeting between Trump and Kim over the APEC meeting was unlikely to produce meaningful results. To bring Kim back into the talks, Koh said Trump will have to bring something that will attract him to the table this time.

North Korea’s evolving threats

Even if they do not meet this month, there are still opportunities for Trump and Kim to resume diplomacy later. Kim may see Trump as a rare American leader willing to grant concessions such as the country’s nuclear status, while Trump may believe that a meeting with Kim would give him a diplomatic breakthrough in the face of various internal problems.

There are hopes and fears about possible dialogue between Trump and Kim.

Some are calling for diplomacy to play a role in mitigating the expanding North Korean threat Nuclear arsenal. But others warn that Trump is content to reward North Korea with broad sanctions relief in exchange for limited steps such as freezing its incomplete nuclear program. Long range missile Such deals would leave North Korea with already-built short-range nuclear missiles targeting South Korea.

Kim Teo, another former head of the National Unification Institute, said that “such a small deal” would still be beneficial to South Korea’s security because decades-long efforts to achieve complete denuclearization of North Korea had made little progress.

“If North Korea has the capability to strike the United States, can the United States freely exercise its extended deterrence pledge in the event that North Korea attacks South Korea?” Kim Tewo said, referring to the American promise to mobilize all military capabilities to protect South Korea. The country does not have its own nuclear weapons and is subject to The so-called protection of the American “nuclear umbrella”..

Chung, the former university dean, said there are almost no chances for North Korea to abandon its nuclear program. But he said that easing sanctions on North Korea in exchange for partial denuclearization steps would have an impact Calls in South Korea and Japan to also allow their countries to possess nuclear weapons.