What the Trump-Petro feud threatens the US-Colombia alliance

For decades he was one of Washington’s closest allies.

The United States, Colombia and the United States cooperate closely in their fight against drug trafficking, and the latter receives hundreds of millions of dollars in US military aid each year.

But now this alliance appears to be more fragile than before.

The two countries’ leaders may have similar styles — forceful and not inclined to mince their words — but leftist Gustavo Petro and Donald Trump come from opposite ends of the political spectrum and have clashed frequently since Trump returned to the White House in January.

On Sunday, tensions reached their highest point when Trump accused Petro of promoting drug production in Colombia and announced the suspension of payments and subsidies to the South American country.

It comes after Petro accused US authorities of violating his country’s sovereignty and killing a Colombian citizen in one of several attacks by the US military on alleged drug vessels in the Caribbean since early September.

BBC Mundo spoke to experts who warned that with the alliance in jeopardy, both Colombia and the US could be at risk of losing out, while organized crime groups are expected to gain.

Colombia became a major beneficiary of US aid in the early 2000s, with money going to “Plan Colombia” – a US-funded initiative to combat drug trafficking groups, reduce the flow of drugs into the US and strengthen Colombia’s security forces.

The investment is credited with weakening the Farc guerrilla group, which was at war with the state before officially demobilizing in 2016.

Since then, US aid has been reduced – and subject to questioning.

Despite Colombia’s military success against armed groups and relative stability and security in recent years, some analysts question whether Plan Colombia has really solved the drug problem in the long run.

According to Hector Galeno, a researcher at the Columbia-based Institute for Advanced Social and Cultural Studies of Latin America and the Caribbean, Colombia is currently experiencing record-high production of cocaine.

Cultivation levels of coca, the main ingredient in cocaine, are also at record highs, although the Colombian government has said the rate of crop expansion will slow from 2021.

The US military campaign in the Caribbean to combat drug trafficking paradoxically shows that drugs in the region have not been eradicated and remain a priority for Washington.

The strengthening of the security forces under Plan Colombia also had collateral effects.

Paramilitary groups engaged in atrocities against civilians, and some disaffected members of these groups later became involved in the drug-trafficking business.

Similarly, a large number of military personnel in the early 2000s created a large pool of young, retired soldiers, some of whom are accused of signing up as mercenaries to fight in foreign conflicts.

Despite funding cuts in previous years, US aid to Colombia will still exceed $400m (£300m) in 2024, according to estimates by the US-based research organization Washington Office on Latin America (WOLA).

Elizabeth Dickinson, an analyst at the International Crisis Group, told BBC Mundo that Colombia is “the US’s closest partner in the fight against narcotics in all of Latin America”.

“It’s been nearly three decades of U.S. investment, training and coordination at an unprecedented level,” Ms. Dickinson said.

Because of the alliance, Colombia and the US are interdependent on each other for security. Today, thanks to the help of the United States, Colombia has one of the most powerful armies in Latin America.

In turn, Washington relies heavily on Bogotá for its anti-narcotics operations, Ms. Dickinson explains.

“80% of the intelligence the US uses to stop drugs in the Caribbean comes from Colombia.”

In recent decades, Colombia has received more than just military aid from the US.

With the help of USAID – Washington’s foreign policy and development aid agency – Colombia launched a number of peace and development projects, particularly in poor and conflict-affected areas.

But earlier this year, the Trump administration announced the agency’s de facto demise.

Colombia, USAID’s largest beneficiary in the region, saw many of its activities canceled and dozens of jobs lost.

“Other sources of aid come from the State Department in the form of civil and defense funding,” Ms Dickinson explains.

She says the aid that exists today — which Trump mentioned in his cuts announcement — funds communications, intelligence and equipment capabilities in Colombia, such as helicopters.

“But beyond these funding issues, the confiscation, capture and high-value operations that Colombia conducts are frequently coordinated with the United States,” she adds.

“Not only financial aid but also institutional ties between the two countries facing a common threat have been lost.”

In mid-September, the US, for the first time in 30 years, Colombia was officially named as a country that it said had “manifestly failed” to fulfill its responsibility to control drug trafficking. – That opened the door to funding cuts.

However, at the time Washington stopped short of cutting aid flows, leaving the move as a warning.

But just a month later, the feared cuts seem to be coming to fruition.

The latest rift between Trump and Petro comes at perhaps the most inconvenient time for both administrations.

Petro is fighting to bring “total peace” to Colombia, a campaign promise he made that has been crumbling this year due to attacks by armed groups in regions such as Catatumbo, Cauca and Valle del Cauca, and the assassination of presidential candidate Miguel Uribe Turbe in Bogotá.

Meanwhile, Trump has been waging a controversial campaign against drug traffickers, and since September, US military vessels have attacked suspected drug boats, killing at least 37 people — 32 in attacks in the Caribbean and five more in the first such US attacks on two ships in the Pacific on Wednesday.

The mission primarily targets vessels from Venezuela, whose president, Nicolas Maduro, has been accused by Trump of being the leader of the Cartel of the Sun drug gang.

Maduro has strongly denied the allegations and said the strike was aimed at removing him from office.

The legality of the operations has also been questioned by legal experts who warn that they violate international law.

One of the most outspoken critics of the US strikes has been President Petro, who has called on the United Nations to open “criminal proceedings” against Trump for the strikes.

Still, the two governments seem to need each other, even if, in light of recent tensions, they are also drifting apart.

Mr Galeno says that given their opposing views and outspoken style, it is clear that relations between Petro and Trump are going to explode “at any moment, especially after the US bombing of yachts in the Caribbean”.

In September, Petro told BBC News Trump called the attacks on the boats an “act of atrocity” and called for US officials to be prosecuted for “murder”.

Last Saturday, he echoed a report published by state media outlet RTVC that a Colombian fisherman named Alejandro Carranza was killed in a September 16 attack on a US boat.

A few hours later, Trump announced the aid suspension and warned that if Petro did not stop drug production in Colombia, the US would do it for him “and it won’t be done well”.

According to the Colombian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, this poses the risk of “illegal intervention in Colombian territory”.

Ms Dickinson described the deterioration in US-Colombian relations and aid cuts as “a devastating blow” and warned that it was likely to “undermine the ability of security forces to control armed groups”.

She adds that it is “difficult to understand” why the US would make such a decision at a time of tension in the region due to US deployments in the Caribbean and Trump’s announcement of an “armed conflict” with drug-trafficking groups.

“Why confront your closest friend when regional security is already at stake?” asks Miss Dickinson.

Mr. Galeno also believes that a crack in the once-strong US-Colombian alliance poses a threat to both countries.

“Colombia needs the U.S., and the U.S. needs Colombia. There are military bases that the U.S. uses in Colombia, agreements signed even during Petro’s administration,” he explains.

“Criminal gangs win in all of this.”

“While Trump is focusing on the Caribbean, traffickers smuggle drugs through the Pacific from Ecuador and Colombia, the source of most of the narcotics shipped from South America,” the expert adds.

Since Trump returned to the US presidency in January, the conflict between his and Petro’s governments has eased.

Within days, the two countries came close to a trade war after Petro turned back a plane carrying Colombian refugees from the U.S., protesting the conditions in which they were traveling.

A trade war was quickly averted after some frantic negotiations, but the crisis set the tone for things to come.

Read: Cooperate or else: Trump’s Colombia encounter is a warning to all leaders

When Colombian presidential candidate and opposition leader Miguel Uribe Turbe was shot dead in Bogota in early June, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio linked his killing to “violent leftist rhetoric coming from the highest levels of the Colombian government.”

Weeks later, the two governments recalled their ambassadors for consultations, often interpreted in international relations before the breakdown of bilateral relations.

The ambassador remained in place, but Washington then dealt more serious blows to Petro’s government.

Not only was Colombia formally decertified as a partner in the war on drugs, Petro’s visa was also revoked because he led pro-Palestinian protests during a visit to the United Nations General Assembly in New York.

Following the US aid suspension and the continued tense animosity between Petro and Trump, many fear relations could deteriorate further.